The Museum of Weird
Economic Indicators
Economists use GDP, CPI, and unemployment rates. But the most fascinating predictors of economic reality are the ones nobody expected β from waffle restaurants to skirt lengths to the songs we listen to.
Waffle House Index
If Waffle House closes, it's bad.
Proxy Data
Waffle House restaurant operations
Predicts
Hurricane & disaster severity
Origin: FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate coined it in 2011. Waffle House famously never closes β when they do, FEMA knows it's catastrophic.
Big Mac Index
Burgernomics is real economics.
Proxy Data
Big Mac prices across 70+ countries
Predicts
Currency purchasing power parity
Origin: Created by The Economist in 1986 as a "lighthearted guide" to exchange rates. Still published twice a year.
Lipstick Index
Recession-proof vanity.
Proxy Data
Lipstick & cosmetics sales volume
Predicts
Economic recession
Origin: Proposed by EstΓ©e Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder in 2001. During the post-9/11 recession, lipstick sales rose 11%.
Hemline Index
Bull markets wear mini skirts.
Proxy Data
Average skirt length in fashion
Predicts
Stock market direction
Origin: Economist George Taylor proposed it in 1926: hemlines rise with stock prices. The Roaring Twenties had the shortest skirts and highest stocks.
Cardboard Box Index
The economy ships in boxes.
Proxy Data
Corrugated cardboard production volume
Predicts
Consumer spending & manufacturing output
Origin: Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was known to track cardboard box shipments as a real-time economic indicator.
Pentagon Pizza Index
Late-night pizza = incoming crisis.
Proxy Data
Pizza delivery orders near the Pentagon
Predicts
Military operations & geopolitical crises
Origin: Cold War legend says Soviet spies monitored food deliveries to US government buildings. PizzINT.watch turned it into a live dashboard in 2024.
Billboard Sadness Index
OURSWhen charts get bright, recessions follow.
Proxy Data
Billboard Hot 100 song valence (emotional tone)
Predicts
Economic recession & recovery cycles
Origin: Based on 5 peer-reviewed papers including Edmans et al. (Journal of Financial Economics, 2022) showing music sentiment predicts stock returns across 40 countries.
Sad Index is Live
Unlike most indicators on this list, the Billboard Sadness Index updates every week with real data. See what America is listening to β and what it might mean for the economy.
Check This Week's BSI