About The Vibe Index
Methodology, research, and data sources
What is BSI?
The Billboard Sadness Index (BSI) tracks the emotional valence of Billboard Hot 100 songs on a weekly basis. By analyzing the acoustic properties of each charting song — specifically its valence (a measure of musical positivity from 0.0 to 1.0) — we compute a rank-weighted sadness score for the entire chart.
Higher-ranked songs have more influence on the index, reflecting their greater cultural penetration. The result is a single number from 0 to 100 that captures what America is listening to — and by extension, how it might be feeling.
Formula
BSI = Σ((1 - valence_i) × (1/rank_i)) / Σ(1/rank_i) × 100The Counter-Intuitive Insight
You might expect the charts to get sadder when the economy crashes. The opposite is true. When recession hits, the Billboard Hot 100 gets brighter.
People seek escapist music during hard times. They don't want to wallow — they want to dance. This pattern has repeated consistently over 25 years of data.
2008 Financial Crisis
Lady Gaga (“Just Dance”, “Poker Face”) and Kesha (“TiK ToK”) dominated the charts. BSI dropped to the low 20s — peak musical escapism.
2020 Post-COVID
After an initial spike of genuine sadness (BSI 68 in March 2020), the charts quickly rebounded with euphoric hits. By 2021, the BSI was back in the low 20s.
This phenomenon is called “Recession Pop” — the tendency for popular music to become aggressively upbeat during economic downturns.
Academic Evidence
The relationship between music sentiment and economic conditions is not just anecdotal. Peer-reviewed research supports the core thesis of The Vibe Index.
Music sentiment and stock returns around the world
Edmans, Fernandez-Perez, Garel & Indriawan — Journal of Financial Economics, 2022
“The SWAV (Spotify Weighted-Average Valence) index, tracking music sentiment across 40 countries, is significantly correlated with next-week stock returns — suggesting music listening habits reveal collective mood shifts before markets react.”
Hit song lyrics and their emotional content over 60 years (1958–2019)
de Lucio & Palomeque — Journal of Cultural Economics, 2023
“Billboard Hot 100 lyrics have become progressively sadder and more negative since 1958, with a notable acceleration after 2000. Interestingly, during economic downturns, chart-topping songs tend to be more positive — the "escapism hypothesis."”
On using alternative data for economic forecasting
Andy Haldane — Bank of England, Speech 2019
“In many situations, data on music listening habits may be at least as useful as conventional consumer confidence surveys for gauging real-time shifts in public mood and economic sentiment.”
Data Sources
| Source | Description | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Billboard Hot 100 | Weekly chart rankings for the top 100 songs in the United States | Visit |
| Essentia | Open-source audio analysis library for computing musical valence and other features | Visit |
| FRED API | Federal Reserve Economic Data — recession indicators, consumer sentiment, S&P 500 | Visit |
| Spotify Audio Features (historical) | Supplementary valence data for songs where Essentia analysis is unavailable | Visit |
Gauge Interpretation
How to read the BSI score and what each range signals about the cultural mood.
Strong escapism signal — people are coping through music
Potential underlying anxiety despite upbeat sound
Normal times — balanced mix of moods
Social reflection — society processing something
Rare — usually tied to national tragedy or crisis
Note: The BSI is a cultural indicator, not a financial instrument. While academic research shows correlation between music sentiment and economic conditions, this should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions.